When Will We Know Election Results?
The Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. on October 20, 2020. (Todd C. Wilkinson/The Corsair)
2020 has been anything but simple, with the uncertainty of the pandemic and the presidential election. The Trump-Pence vs. Biden-Harris campaign race will end once the election results are officially announced. While the possibility that a presidential winner will be announced on election night still exists, it may take a week -- or even a month -- before we know who our president and vice president will be for the next four years.
Even though Americans are used to having a projected winner from news stations on election night, these predictions are based on assumptions from partial voting results. The winner of the election for each state will be announced once every vote has been counted.
Election results are never finalized on the day of the election; every state certifies their results days after, once all ballots have been received. As of Nov. 3, over 100 million Americans have already cast their vote, either through mail-in ballots or in-person voting.
Due to the pandemic, approximately 80 million Americans have chosen to vote by mail -- more than ever before in the history of presidential elections. According to Pew Research Center, a non-partisan fact checking service, the majority of those choosing to vote by mail are Democrats, with Republicans more likely to vote in-person. For states that count in-person ballots first and mail-in ballots second, early results may look very different from the final outcome.
Electoral votes are the biggest determinant of the presidential election. A candidate must obtain 270 electoral votes, over half of the total 538 votes up for grabs, in order to win. Each state gets a set number of “votes” toward the election, and whichever candidate gets the most votes within that state wins all of the electoral votes.
California has 55 electoral votes, the most out of any state in the country. California has been a Democratic leaning state since the 1992 election of Bill Clinton; however, the state was historically Republican-leaning for much of the mid-to-late 1900s.
Swing states, also known as "battleground" states, can be easily won by either a Democratic or Republican candidate, and the direction they swing in cannot generally be predicted based on previous elections. States like Florida (with 29 electoral votes), Texas (38), Michigan (16), and Pennsylvania (20), are being fought for by both Trump and Biden. These states could expedite the election results depending on how large of a voting gap there is between the two candidates.
Texas has the most restrictive voting laws, which has led to voter suppression, county gerrymandering, voter intimidation, and on-the-road harassment of vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris. In 2016, Texas had the lowest voter turnout in the country; this year, they have the highest.
Officially declared a toss-up state, the Lone Star State has not been won by a Democrat since 1976. Back in August, former presidential contender Beto O’Rourke told audiences at an Axios digital event that “we can once and for all end the Trump Presidency and Trumpism forever” if Biden wins Texas Tuesday night.
At the end of October, The Trump administration tried to invalidate 126,000 ballots that were cast at drive-through polling locations in Harris County, TX, a region which has a largely democratic presence. A federal judge rejected the administration’s effort on Nov. 1.
Despite Trump’s Oct. 27 claim to Fox News that “it would be very, very proper and very nice if a winner were declared on Nov. 3, instead of counting ballots for two weeks, which is totally inappropriate, and I don't believe that's by our laws,” tallying ballots until all are counted is consistent with the law. However, states have differing laws that say when they can officially start counting ballots. Wisconsin legally cannot start counting ballots until the day before the election. Michigan and Pennsylvania won’t start counting mail-in ballots until election day.
After weeks of repeated questioning, Trump finally agreed to a peaceful transfer of power during an NBC town hall on Oct. 15 -- but not without casting doubt on the election results and making baseless claims about voter fraud. He has also refused to publicly guarantee a violence-free transition.
“Yes, I will [accept a peaceful transfer], but I want it to be an honest election and so does everybody else," Trump said. "When I see thousands of ballots dumped in a garbage can and they happen to have my name on it, I'm not happy about it."
Trump has repeatedly “predicted” that election results will be decided by the Supreme Court (SCOTUS), citing mail-in voting fraud as the primary cause. At the end of October, the president appointed Republican conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Court, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the court that would presumably benefit Trump should the election results reach SCOTUS.
As Trump’s angry tweeting persists at an exponential and unsettling speed, fears regarding what post-election America will be are unsettling for voters like SMC student Carmen Anders. Anders fears that if Trump doesn’t get re-elected, he might turn to Twitter to encourage his supporters to turn violent.
“His tweets have allowed him to perpetuate his lies for the last four years,” Anders said. “His tweets [spread] even more lies and fear: using his tweets to incite violence is not out of the question.”
As the COVID-19 death toll continues to rise and the country remains politically divided, this election has the potential to unite or divide us further. With the increased voter turnout and the possibility of swing state results coming through quickly, we may have an idea of who the next president of the United States will be as early as election night.